
Medicare Growth Model
McKinsey’s Medicare Growth Model enables clients to calculate projected growth in the Medicare-eligible population as a whole and in different segments of the Medicare market—i.e., Medicare fee-for-service (FFS), Medical Advantage (MA), Medicare supplemental, and Medicare part D. It also permits payors to determine how market growth is likely to vary across geographies and micro-markets and to identify the key sources of growth within the MA market.
The Medicare Growth Model is based on a county-by-county understanding of demographic trends; historical trends in Medicare FFS, MA, and Medicare supplemental growth rates; the impact of the Affordable Care Act on those growth rates; seniors’ preferences about the various Medicare options; and the prevalence of the dual-eligible population. Based on this data, the Medical Growth Model then makes projections through 2020 about the size and growth rate of the Medicare-eligible population in each county and the likely choices that population will make among its Medicare options.
Our Tools & Research
- Consumer Exchange Simulation
- Consumer Health Insights (CHI) Survey
- Customer Experience Survey
- Exchange Offering Database
- Labor Optimization Tool (LOT)
- McKinsey Predictive Agent-based Coverage Tool (MPACT)
- Medicaid Consumer Survey
- Medicaid Managed Care Program Database
- Medicare Growth Model
- Organizational Health Index (OHI)
- OrgLab
- Payor Financial Database (PFD)
- Physician Survey
- Private Exchange Simulation
- Product Filing Review (PFR)
- Provider Reform Impact and Stress-test Model (PRISM)
- Provider-led Plan Database
- Research into Leading Consumer Companies
- Roll Forward Model (RFM)