Payor Financial Models

Medicare Growth Model

McKinsey’s Medicare Growth Model enables clients to calculate projected growth in the Medicare-eligible population as a whole and in different segments of the Medicare market—i.e., Medicare fee-for-service (FFS), Medical Advantage (MA), Medicare supplemental, and Medicare part D. It also permits payors to determine how market growth is likely to vary across geographies and micro-markets and to identify the key sources of growth within the MA market.

The Medicare Growth Model is based on a county-by-county understanding of demographic trends; historical trends in Medicare FFS, MA, and Medicare supplemental growth rates; the impact of the Affordable Care Act on those growth rates; seniors’ preferences about the various Medicare options; and the prevalence of the dual-eligible population. Based on this data, the Medical Growth Model then makes projections through 2020 about the size and growth rate of the Medicare-eligible population in each county and the likely choices that population will make among its Medicare options.