McKinsey Predictive Agent-based Coverage Tool (MPACT)

MPACT is a micro-simulation model that uses a comprehensive set of inputs and a distinctive approach to modeling consumer and employer behavior to project how health insurance coverage may change post-reform. MPACT contains 300 million “agents” representing all residents of the United States. Each agent is characterized by his or her county of residence, type of insurance coverage, and eight demographic variables. Over the course of the micro-simulation, agents in each geo-demographic segment make health insurance purchasing decisions depending on their eligibility, prior purchasing behavior, demographics (including health risk status), subsidy eligibility, and penalty impact, among other factors.